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« Savings Rate Usually Rises in Recession: Fortune Has It Wrong | Main | Marketing in a Recession: Advice from John Quelch »

February 12, 2009

Comments

David Cooke

Bill,

Love your monthly charts and notes.

Take a look at Harvard professor of economics Robert Barro's article in the Wednesday Wall Street Journal, page A15 titled, "What are the odds of a Depression?". His analysis suggests more than a 20% chance of this US downturn being severe enough to be classified as a depression (10% drop in GDP).

Business managers should plan based on several scenarios, giving each scenario a rough probability of occurance. This helps them think about strategies under various circumstances. Like buying fire insurance even though that scenario is unlikely.

David Cooke

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