The market's fear is reflected in the TED spread, a cute, cuddly name given to the difference in interest rates between inter-bank loans (LIBOR) and U.S. treasury bills. We use 3 month maturities on both to keep things apples-to-apples. The spread has shot up during the financial crisis, but I wanted to put this into some perspective:
Yes, this is a crisis. About as bad as September 1987 when the stock market crashed, but not nearly as bad as the recessions of the early 1980s, or mid 1970s, or 1970.
What I see in this chart is the Great Moderation, the milder business cycle climate that I discussed in two interviews with Mark Thoma.
So, take heart if you survived any of those past recessions. You'll likely survive this one, too.
According to Wikipedia, "BBA LIBOR fixings did not commence officially before 1 January 1986, although before that some rates have been fixed for a trial period commencing in December 1984."
So how exactly are you constructing the TED spread prior to this date?
Posted by: Rodney | October 09, 2008 at 09:17 AM
Thanks.
You're about the only guy whose got a little optimism.
And that's important.
Tom Desrosier
http://www.dare2believe.com
Posted by: tom desrosier | October 09, 2008 at 10:02 AM
Rodney, I downloaded LIBOR data from www.FreeLunch.com. They cite "daily press" as their source. Perhaps the basic data were being published before the BBA got involved. That raises the question of data comparability, but I'd guess if one looked only at broad trends that's not a problem.
Posted by: Bill Conerly | October 09, 2008 at 10:44 AM
It's too early to call.
At least let the line finish drawing, maybe we'll see the worst spread in the history.
Of course, we all will survive through this crisis, physically speaking.
But monetary?
Posted by: ckt (msia) | October 21, 2008 at 11:14 AM
In response to the earlier comment about the ted spreads before 1986, I found a 1992 article talking about ted spreads before that time.
In the article, the writer comments,
"Since 1974, he notes, peaks in the
spread have gotten ever smaller."
http://www.iht.com/articles/1992/06/06/mrte.php
So one can infer that the ted spread had been used and watched for quite some time before that.
Unfortunately, the article doesn't say when ted spreads first became an indicator for credit tightness and laxity
Happy Reading!
Posted by: D | October 21, 2008 at 03:23 PM
Hey, nice job on the blog here. Some good ideas. Keep up the good work.
Posted by: Immigration Advice | December 16, 2008 at 03:36 AM