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« 4 Indications that it is Time to Start Hedging Your Forex Risk | Main | Gasoline Demand Falling--No Surprise Once You Understand Time Lags »

February 27, 2008



Based on the numbers in your graph, you certainly appear correct. On the other hand, I doubt you would argue the contrarian credentials of Sam Zell, who said on CNBC yesterday in response to a question from Jack Welch that he thought the housing recovery would begin this spring. Can you explain how he can be so optimistic in the face of the data you present?


I have to echo Jim. I am interested in your response to Sam Zell also.
My opinion ... Nationally, I would tend to agree that the recovery has started, but I think it is a very long road with inventory at 175% of average - 18 months more or less - this not counting existing homes coming onto the market.
I would be interested in your opinion of how the Northwest fares in this picture. For so long, people thought Seattle immune to severe economic cycles. Portland was at least less inclined that the nation - both strong markets. Are your projections as dire for our beloved PacNW?


I would like to read a discussion of the fiscal and monetary remedies for stagflation.


what is the source of your housing inventory chart?

Bill Conerly

data are from

Note that for "homes for sale," the underlying data are divided into three categories: finished homes, homes under construction, and not yet started. I only use the first two categories. If the builder has not begun construction, he has a lot, not a home for sale.

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