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« The Supremes and Price Floors | Main | Business Equipment Orders Soft - Again »

March 27, 2007


Mark McGregor

What are you thinking vis a vis recession(whispered) this year? As a housing sub contractor I feel like we need to work off inventory this year. You think 07 and 08 to work it off. Would a recession or even just a slow down in the rate of growth push that recovery out or is it factored into your forecast?

I really appreciate your blog

Bill Conerly

I think that the odds of a recession across the economy are maybe one chance in 5, or perhaps as low as one chance in 10.

However, the housing market will suck for the next two years.

If a recession hits, I doubt that housing will be even worse, though. A recession would mean housing's pain spreads to consumers, but that would not necessarily worsen housing. (In the past that has usually happened, but I think the housing pain is about as bad as it could be; adding a recession on top is unlikely, this cycle only, to worsen it.)

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