The health care reform proposal will increase demand for medical services, not much surprise there. Because anyone can buy insurance without limitations on pre-existing conditions, people who will need extensive service have access to insurance now. They will likely consume more services. Even though most indigent people did have some access to health care even before reform, it's different when you know you can walk in and be treated like a regular insured person. Demand for medical services will increase.
Whenever I'm looking at an industry with rising demand, I immediately wonder how fast supply can respond. What about health care?
Virtually all training programs for health care professionals are full today. That includes training to be doctors, nurses, and various technicians. The educational programs are fully subscribed. Even if we had vacancies, it takes many years to train a doctor, and some years to train nurses and many technicians. The health care reform bill has only a few provisions that will increase supply. There are some efforts to shift available supply to rural areas, and to encourage nurses to go into nursing education. Generally, however, look for no increase in the supply of health care professionals within the next five years, and doubtful increases beyond that.
(Before the health care reform bill was passed, there had been an expansion of health care education that will continue, but most industry observers think the expansion just barely kept up with pre-reform growth of needs.)
So, demand up, but supply cannot rise in the short-term. What happens? Hospitals and clinics bid up the wages of nurses, technicians, and doctors. They can afford it because they are more often reimbursed for their services, thanks to the insurance reforms. The price tags on medical procedures have to rise
Okay, now slap me in the face with reality. Many prices in health care are fictions, rather than market-clearing prices. Many of the "prices" are set by the government through reimbursement rates. They may not react to supply and demand.
What happens when demand increases, supply cannot increase in the short-run, but prices cannot adjust to limit demand and induce more supply? Shortages! Many people who are used to getting care on a prompt basis will find themselves crowded out by the newly insured. Nobody will be denied care outright, but waiting times for appointments and procedures will increase. Providers may begin to limit procedures to manage access to care. It's not the cold-hearted denial of access for monetary reasons; it's the warm-hearted denial of access to allow someone else to be served. Feel better?
If you run a business, your employees may well feel that they are getting inferior service from the providers available from the company health care plan. That will happen even as you have to push some of your insurance costs on to your workers. Anticipate grumpy workers.
If you run a hospital or clinic, start working on employee retention right now. Make your organization the most-desired place a health care professional could possibly imagine working--and you won't lose too many people. More importantly, try to shift as much work as you can to lower level employees. Use physician assistants and nurse practitioners to the max. Hire non-medical personnel to maximize the productivity of your trained staff, through scribing (making entries in the electronic medical records system), moving supplies and whatever else will free up the trained personnel's time.
If you run an insurance company, plan on higher costs.
This begins a series of posts about the recently adopted health care reform, a subject I have not discussed on this blog so far. I will not be ranting about how wise or stupid the bill is. If you want to hear me rant, buy me a martini. As long you keep buying, I'll keep ranting. Instead, I want to cover the effects that businesses will face.
Today's topic is health insurance cost impacts due to the access provisions. The new bill mandates "immediate access to insurance for uninsured individuals with a pre-existing condition," and eliminates "pre-existing condition exclusions for children." (I'm working off a summary, being no more inclined to read the entire document than any of our elected officials are.)
Why do insurance companies exclude pre-existing conditions? We economists call it "moral hazard." If people have a choice about whether they buy insurance or not, then those most likely to buy it are those who are sick or going to be sick. This self-selection of the sick is mostly avoided through employer-provided health care. When everyone who works at the ABC company gets health coverage, then there's less chance that only sick people are buying coverage. However, notice that I said "mostly avoided," because today people who have pre-existing conditions, or suspect they are likely to get sick, seek out jobs with good health care coverage.
I expect three kinds of behavioral effects.
Many people will not change their behavior at all, even if it would be in their self-interest. They don't know about the law, they don't care about their future, or they intend to get around to it once of these days.
Some people who currently have health insurance coverage will drop it immediately. They save money, and they remain certain they can buy coverage whenever they need it. Here's their risk: they are in an accident, get taken to the emergency room, get treated (the hospital cannot say no), get their huge bill, and the hospital trashes their credit rating. That's about it. If follow up care is needed, they simply buy insurance. If they get a lump and their doctor says let's get a biopsy, they buy insurance. Avoiding months, and maybe years, of insurance payments will cover an occasional doctor visit.
Some people who currently don't have coverage will buy coverage when they get sick or injured. Their care may be better (or maybe not), but it's quite likely to be more extensive and expensive. Hospitals and doctors will be better off--they are more likely to get paid. Insurers will be much worse off. Those who didn't have coverage but can come up with a little insurance money can get millions of dollars worth of care for a small premium. (And there are no longer any lifetime caps on coverage, either.)
The direct impacts: This feature by itself looks good for health care providers (hospitals, doctors, drug companies) and very bad for insurers. However, I don't know the magnitude of the impact, because I'm not sure how many people will stay in inertia, and how many will respond to the new incentives. Certainly some will respond, and some won't.
What is the business impact of limits on pre-existing conditions? If your company currently pays for health insurance for your employees, expect that cost to rise even faster than it has. If I were advising an insurance company (I'm not, but give me a call if you run one), I'd err on the side of higher premiums rather than lower, because of the potential of many, many sick people signing up for coverage. I would never recommend a company provide bad service, but some insurance companies might be better off with really lousy service when new customers apply for coverage.
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