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« Recession? Not in 2008 | Main | Consumer Surveys: Don't Trust Them »

August 01, 2008


Steve - Technical Analyst

Hello Bill,

I'm curious how you came predict the labor markets will become tighter next year. I wouldn't call myself an economist, so this intrigues me as I see increases in unemployment and a struggling economy making it easier to find labor.

Great article. Thanks

Bill Conerly

Steve, good question. I'm forecasting a turnaround. Markets are certainly slack now, but they always turn around. Sometime next year, maybe around mid-year, we'll see the change.

Laurence Hunt


Does the birth-death model enter into these figures? I understand from your neighbour Bill Fleckenstein that when the model finally assumes a recession, it will start to subtract rather than add jobs. I also note that Paul Kasriel on is tracking broader measures of unemployment which push the numbers above 10%, and make the 2003 recovery look very weak. In short, will the ugly numbers turn much uglier when the birth-death model reverses direction?

My reason for these kinds of comments if my sense that we're now moving into a recession that is fundamentally different than 2000 and 1990. If I'm wrong, it will be because China gets so strong that they start buying US exports - maybe!?!

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