Housing Starts Rebound: Beware the Headlines

Housing starts rebounded last month, according to the headlines.  However, you need to look at the data to put this "rebound" in context.

The housing starts rebound is that little blue uptick at the end of the chart.  This is not the beginning of the upturn, nor even the end of the downturn.  This is a a little sawtooth in the downward trend.  Expect it to continue, given the large overhang of inventory I've discussed in the past.