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« The 20-Teens: Business Challenges and Opportunities in the Next Decade | Main | Four Mistakes Businesses Make in a Recession »

March 20, 2008


Laurence Hunt

Let me take you one further, to suggest that the really big opportunities come at the secular turning points. For example, the HUI (Amex Gold Bugs Index) bottomed in November 2000, and has garnered returns exceeding 1000% since that time, even allowing for its recent pullback. The gains are even more dramatic when the HUI is contrasted to the S&P 500. Basically, general equities have been a poor investment since the turn of the millennium, as global inflation and Asian demand have driven the precious metal and commodity markets (which, unlike tech and housing are not bubbles). I'll grant you that different fundamentals drive the precious metal (monetary inflation) and commodity (Asian demand) markets. But these are secular turning points likely to last for a couple of decades or longer.

That Software Guy

You're both right. To be ready to take advantage of the inflection point, you need to do your preparatory work when the downturn starts. Spring always follows winter - start getting ready for the next boom now.

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